444 Craps System
Craps is the fastest-moving of casino table games. An average speed at a busy blackjack table runs around 60 hands per hour, but the house expects about 100 decisions per hour at craps. That, along with the tendency of craps players to have several bets working at once, means that craps requires a larger bankroll than other table games. Various Progressions betting system explained in detail with tables. This betting system will give you the tools in order to help you beat the house. This strategy can be used in craps, roulette or baccarat. Learn single unit progression, Red/Black or Hi/Low Progression. Delta Downs Craps One Roll Bets Racetrack Casino Hotel. Delta Downs Craps One Roll Bets Racetrack Spa Hotel captures the spirit, style, and charm of New Orleans with a dynamic mix of gaming excitement, multi-screen off-track betting, live entertainment, and delicious food.
Although I have tested a lot of systems, I don't need to test all of them to know they are all worthless. No system can ever pass the test of time. It is not unusual to win for a while with a system, but if you keep playing the odds will eventually catch up to you and you will fall behind.
For more information about the futility of betting systems, please see The Truth about Betting Systems.
A casino I played at had the 3,4,5 odds system where you were allowed 3x on the 4 and 10, 4x on the 5 and 9 and 5 x on the 6 and 8. I feel that with this 'system' of placing odds, you reduce the fluctuations (with respect to standard 5x odds on all numbers) in your bankroll, and change the distribution of net gain/loss per session, i.e. you would produce a sharper peak located slightly more to the loss side than with 5x odds. Is this so, and could you put some numbers to it?
That is known as 3-4-5X odds, and is now pretty common. The following table shows all the possible outcomes, for the pass and odds combined, with full odds.
I like this one. I get about 1 in 161 tables. 1 / 0.53^8 so we win about $12 (high) on average per table 160 times and lose $2380 one time. $1920 + (-$2380) = a net loss on average. Craps 444 System, largest slot machine ever recorded, hoodsport wa casino, mobile casino no deposit bonus usa.
Return Table with 3-4-5X Odds
| Event | Pays | Probability | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pass line win | 1 | 0.222222 | 0.222222 |
| Pass line loss | -1 | 0.111111 | -0.111111 |
| Point of 4 or 10 & win | 7 | 0.055556 | 0.388889 |
| Point of 4 or 10 & lose | -4 | 0.111111 | -0.444444 |
| Point of 5 or 9 & win | 7 | 0.088889 | 0.622222 |
| Point of 5 or 9 & lose | -5 | 0.133333 | -0.666667 |
| Point of 6 or 8 & win | 7 | 0.126263 | 0.883838 |
| Point of 6 or 8 & lose | -6 | 0.151515 | -0.909091 |
| Total | 1.000000 | -0.014141 |
The standard deviation per pass line bet is 4.915632.
Unlike most gambling writers, I don't put much emphasis on betting strategies. Assuming the same game and bet, there is no one right or wrong strategy. They all behave differently in the short run, but in the long run you will give the house the same percentage of total money bet.
This is similar to a question I got last week. Yes, it is true that there are ten ways to roll a 6 or 8, and six ways to roll a 7. However, one must not look at the probabilities alone, but weight them against the payoffs. The place bet on the 6 and 8 pays 7 to 6 odds when fair odds would pay 6 to 5. By making six unit place bets on the 6 and 8, and taking the other down if one wins, the probability of winning 7 units is 62.5% and the probability of losing 12 units is 37.5%. If the player must cover both the 6 and 8, then the place bet is the way to go. This rate of return isn't bad but could be better. For the player who puts a priority on minimizing the overall house edge, the best strategy is to make combinations of pass, don't pass, come, and don't come bets, and always take the maximum allowable odds.
The better system is to bet on the don't pass only and take full odds. Yes, betting on both does increase you chances of winning on any one bet. However you are suffering a higher combined house edge by betting on both the pass and don't pass and it will cost you in the long run.
Yes, it was luck. It helped that you stuck to the low house edge bets. However, next time, make the line bets with odds only, and don't bet the field, especially if it pays 2 to 1 only on both the 2 and 12.
No combination of bets can give the player an advantage. In your example you would lose one unit for every 12 on the come out roll. You don't make up for it laying the odds. While you usually win laying the odds, you have to risk more. In the end, laying the odds has zero house edge.
As long as you are backing up your pass and come bets with full odds, it doesn't make any difference how many come bets you make. However, it does reduce the overall house edge to keep the odds on your come bets working on the come out roll.
You should never remove a don't pass bet after a point is made! Once a point is made of 6 or 8 the don't pass has equity of 9.09% of the bet amount, which you would be throwing away by taking the bet down. The equity of a don't pass bet on a point of 5 or 9 is 20%, and on a 4 or 10 is 33.33%.
Thanks for the compliment on my site. The best thing I can say about this system is that it composed of low house edge bets. Yes, a 12 will lose the pass bet and push the don’t pass on the come out roll, this is where the house edge is. By making the pass bet you are increasing the overall house edge. If you’re afraid losing you shouldn’t be playing at all. Never hedge your bets. So my advice is to stick to just the don’t pass and laying odds. Yes, you’ll lose some on the come out roll. However if you don’t lose on the come out roll the don’t pass bet will usually win.
I am a novice, just starting to play. My question concerns the 'Five Count Doey/Don’t' System. The way I understand the system:- Wait until the shooter establishes a point.
- Play both come/don’t come (same amount). Until you have a maximum of four numbers
- After the shooter has rolled five times without rolling a 7, take odds on all your numbers on the front side.
The rationale: Limit your exposure until you find a 'qualified' (five rolls without a 7) shooter. Only betting the odds so there is no 'house edge'! Can you compare this system with just playing pass/come and taking the odds?
As I stated in the other craps strategy question you are only mixing another house edge bet into the game by betting on both the pass and don’t pass, or come and don’t come. It is also not going to help to wait until a shooter hits five points. The probability of making a point is the same for me and you as it is for somebody who just threw 100 points in a row. In other words, the past does not matter. As I stated to the person who asked the other question (whom I think may also be you) don’t make opposite bets, just stick to either the do or don’t side and always back up your bets with the odds.
Unless bankroll preservation is very important to you then Kelly betting won’t help. I would just flat bet. Nice strategy to milk the comp system.
The American Mensa Guide to Casino Gambling has the following 'anything but seven' combination of craps bets that shows a net win on any number except 7. Here's how much MENSA advises to bet in the 'Anything but 7' system:- 5- place $5
- 6- place $6
- 8- place $6
- field- $5
- total= $22
They claim the house edge is 1.136%. How is that possible if every individual bet made has a higher house edge?
Good question. To confirm their math I made the following table, based on a field bet paying 3 to 1 on a 12. The lower right cell does shows an expected loss of 25 cents over $22 bet. So the house edge is indeed .25/22 = 1.136%.
Mensa Anything but Seven Combo
| Number | Probability | Field | Place 5 | Place 6 | Place 8 | Win | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 0.027778 | 10 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 10 | 0.277778 |
| 3 | 0.055556 | 5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.277778 |
| 4 | 0.083333 | 5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.416667 |
| 5 | 0.111111 | -5 | 7 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 2 | 0.222222 |
| 6 | 0.138889 | -5 | 0.000000 | 7 | 0.000000 | 2 | 0.277778 |
| 7 | 0.166667 | -5 | -5 | -6 | -6 | -22 | -3.666667 |
| 8 | 0.138889 | -5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 7 | 2 | 0.277778 |
| 9 | 0.111111 | 5 | 0 | 0.000000 | 0 | 5 | 0.555556 |
| 10 | 0.083333 | 5 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.416667 |
| 11 | 0.055556 | 5 | 0 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 5 | 0.277778 |
| 12 | 0.027778 | 15 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 0.000000 | 15 | 0.416667 |
| Total | 1 | -0.25 |
The reason the overall house edge appears to be less than the house edge of each individual bet is because the house edge on place bets is generally measured as expected player loss per bet resolved.
However, in this case the player is only keeping the place bets up for one roll. This significantly reduces the house edge on the place bets from 4.00% to 1.11% on the 5 and 9, and from 1.52% to 0.46% on the 6 and 8.
For you purists who think I am inconsistent in measuring the house edge on place bets as per bet resolved (or ignoring ties) then I invite you to visit my craps appendix 2 where all craps bets are measured per roll (including ties).
Craig from Los Angeles
No. I had to Google this to find out what this is. This appears to me to be an amusing urban legend about some young scientists who developed a winning craps system. The story is told at Quatloos. I would file this under other fictional stories that have become mistaken for fact, like Joshua’s missing day. As I have said hundreds of times, not only can betting systems not beat games like craps, they can’t even dent the house edge.
If the player bets $5 on the field and 5, and $6 on the 6 and 8, then he will have a net win of $2 on the 5, 6, and 8, $10 on the 2, $15 on the 12, and $5 on the other field numbers, assuming that the 12 pays 3 to 1 on the field. The player will lose $22 on a 7. On a per roll basis, the player can expect to lose 25 cents compared to $22 in bets, for a house edge of 1.136%.
This begs the question, why is this lower than the individual house edge of each bet made? It’s not. The reason it seems that way is the result of comparing apples to oranges. The house edge of place bets is usually expressed as the expected loss per bet resolved. Looking at the individual bets on a per-roll basis, the house edge on the 5 is 1.11%, and on the 6 and 8 is 0.46%, according to my craps appendix 2. Comparing apples to apples, the house edge is a weighted average of the house edge on the field, 5, 6, and 8, on a per-roll basis, or (5/22)×2.778% + (5/22)×1.111% + (6/22)×0.463% + (6/22)×0.463% = 1.136%.
For the benefit of other readers, the 5-Count is a method of slow-playing craps, as discussed in ’Golden Touch Dice Control Revolution’ by Frank Scoblete and Dominator. As the book states, it is a way of betting nothing on some rolls, reducing your expected loss on random shooters, while still getting the full comp value of table time.
The way the 5-Count works is you start counting rolls as soon as a new shooter throws any point number. When you get to five rolls after you start counting, the shooter is deemed worthy, and you start betting. However, you if the 5th roll is not a point number, it doesn’t count.
The book says you will only be betting 43% of the time, which I agree with. It is common for craps players to not bet, bet small, or bet the don’t pass on new shooters, as a way to qualify him. Once a shooter has made a point, or thrown lots of point numbers, the other players will gain confidence in him, and start betting with him. So, this kind of strategy seems natural. When casinos rate your average bet, they don’t lower the average for betting nothing some of the time. However, sometimes they will dock your time, especially if you are betting big.
An alternative strategy is to wait until the shooter makes a point. Under this strategy you will only be betting 40.6% of the time, less than the 43.5% with the 5-Count.
Yes! I’ve said many times that betting systems not only can’t beat a house edge game, they can’t even dent it. That includes denting it in the house’s favor. In other words, even if he tried to lose, he still only gives up 0.18% over the long-run, under your assumptions. Over a shorter time, he probably could do this, but not over 'years.' Some might argue that to deliberately lose, the player should do an anti-Martingale, where the player kept pressing his bets until he lost. However, a problem there is that a winning player will eventually reach the table maximum, which is rather low in craps. It just goes to show how futile betting systems are.
Thread Rating:
Al 'The Professor' Kaufman
'I'm the best (gambler) there is'
'I have what everybody wants. How to win in the casinos'
also: stop losing at the casinos
The Gambling Professor from
http://www.thegamblingprofessor.com/
Now from the video collection on YouTube (yeah! now has transcriptions)
Blackjack system
Q: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)
the first second he gets there losing 8 in a row?
Answer Al: It's virtually impossible.
Professor Al also says this:
11:05
Now remember it's possible to lose 8 hands in a row
it doesn't happen that often
But you have to be there when it happens
Free Craps System Advice
and remember we are cutting down the odds
because it has to happen the second you get to the table
Question #1: agree with The Professor?
Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)
the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?
and are they different playing at one table or over ten tables?
so we win about $12 (high) on average per table 160 times and lose $2380 one time.
$1920 + (-$2380) = a net loss on average
will comps make up for this? Comps playing an average 2.07 hands per table?
what casino now?
if our average win per table increases to $15, that = a profit of $2400 ($15*160)
about equals our expected (average) one loss at $2380.
Now to get a $15 average win, means we have to bet more and deviate from the Professor's unit betting chart.
I think The Professor needs to go back to the drawing (white) board
Looking at the binomial probability distribution will help out.
The chance of NO tables losing 8 in a row in 161 tables played = 36.5856%
The chance of just ONE table losing 8 in a row in 161 tables played = 36.9025%
Wow! see that. the same!
but they do not add up to 100%.
The chance of TWO or MORE tables losing 8 in a row in 161 tables is 26.5119%
better than 1 in 4
The Professor's method IS gambling!
more (that do not want to watch the video)
0:24
'Hi
I'm Al 'The Gambling Professor'
I reside here in Las Vegas because I gamble for a living.
I'm probably the best there is.
and I'm going to make you a winner in the casino today
IF you listen to my rules
.'He is a Method Gambler.
From the video:
'We are looking to earn money.
you need horrific bad luck to lose'
2:44 has the BJ Basic Strategy chart
BJ bankroll $2380
starting bet $5
goal is to win 1 hand, before losing 8 in a row,
10 times for about $100 earned winnings.
after the first win, move on to another table.
No splitting, never double downs.
Play 10 tables you stop
repeat this 5 times a day
Progression after each loss go to the next level.
on a win start back at $5
5,15,35,75,150,300,600,1200
works for Craps too!
444 Craps System Youtube
19:00but what are the odds of him sitting down
the first second he gets there losing 8 in a row?
It's virtually impossible.
at 20:40
Dealer misplays his hand.
a J showing. did not peek for an Ace and hit players hand with a 9
That 9 belongs in the very next hand.
That next hand would have pushed instead of a win.
22:10
'Most of the time you are going to win between the 2nd and 3rd hand.'
Sally says
This statement is also an error. Everyone should know the player wins about 47% of the hands (not counting pushes)
right after the last win. (the relative frequency from a frequency table)
To win on the 2nd or 3rd hand is only about 38% chance
It is about 72% of hands won happen on the 1st and the 2nd hand played
in the video, 15 hands did just that for a 75% hit rate.
Just watching the two tables played in the video, the player won 12 out of 20 hands on the very first hand, that is 60% for this small sample size.
Back to Al
'This is a piece of cake.
You can make a living.
You can make $500 a day with a $2380 bankroll'
Looks like The Professor shows no math but speaks of it and his experiences gambling.
Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?
Sally
Questions are again
Question #1: agree with The Professor?
Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)
the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?
Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?
Questions are again
Question #1: agree with The Professor?
Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)
the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?
Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?
I don't know the answer to #2, but the answer to #1 is hell no, and #3 would be hilarious but not worth the Wizard's time.
Bonus Question #4: is this guy just another asshat systems seller who happens to look more professional?
DING DING DING
Did he get permission to film such a spot inside a casino? What casino would give a charletan such as this the opportunity to sell his wares using a casino facility?
Why does he not quote the actual math involved? If someone asks you what the odds are of losing 8 hands in a row, should you not be able to present that in a factual way for everyone to understand?
I must admit I didn't watch the video and I have absolutely NO intention of doing so either. This dude is high off his ass is my final summation.
Thanks
Craps lesson
Seems to be part of the same family as the video that the OP put up.
He has another one where he bet the pass/don't pass a the same time using the same chart as he had for BJ.
If you table hop like that guy says, wouldn't you get backed off quick? Maybe this guy got put in the black book or something and now that's why he is putting up all his old vids to get some new money coming in.
i have done this progression on craps after 1 pass made and have bust at $300 ;) (so 7 made mostly naturals).
He put this up as of 3 months ago
Craps lesson
Seems to be part of the same family as the video that the OP put up.
He has another one where he bet the pass/don't pass a the same time using the same chart as he had for BJ.
If you table hop like that guy says, wouldn't you get backed off quick? Maybe this guy got put in the black book or something and now that's why he is putting up all his old vids to get some new money coming in.
Any casino would welcome this guy's action. Unless the 'secret sauce' in his system is actually cheating (capping/pinching etc.), he would be a gold mine for the casinos and they would be stupid to back him off.
444 Craps System Scam
There's an old quote...something about casinos sending a limo to the airport for anyone with a 'system.'
Questions are again
Question #1: agree with The Professor?
Question #2: what are the odds of him sitting down (at a Blackjack table)
the first second he gets there losing 8 (bets) in a row?
Question #3: Is it time for the Wizard to meet The Professor?
Question 1: I agree that The Professor is a clown.
His system is just a four-step +1 Grand Martingale that fades into a regular Martingale on the fifth step. The aspect of that system that really confuses me is, 'Why not just continue to double and add one base unit?' You're already down that amount of money on a system base of $5 in the first place, you're already risking (up to) $2,380, so why not continue to increase the unit and risk a little more?
Question 2: According to the Wizard:
http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/blackjack/probability/
The probability of a win, discluding pushes, is .4636 which makes the probability of a loss .5364.
Those probabilities aren't going to be exactly right because Professor Clown refuses to double or split hands. The refusal to split is going to increase his overall probability of losing a hand, while the refusal to double is actually going to INCREASE his probability of winning a hand in many situations. For example, if you hit a 9 or 10 against a dealer showing 8, then many of those hits are going to result in a total less than seventeen, in which event, BS would then suggest that the player take another hit. The EV of NOT doubling will be worse, but the actual win rate will be better.
I'm just not sure how this offsets, so I'm going to use the Wizard's numbers assuming proper Basic Strategy.
The overall probability of losing eight in a row (assuming proper BS): (.5364)^8 = 0.00685346427756715 = 1/0.00685346427756715 = 1 in 145.912
AND:
This is a very rough approximation of what will happen:
Step 1: WIN (Wins $5) = .4636 * 5 = 2.318
Step 2: LOSS/WIN (Wins $10) = (.5364 * .4636) * 10 = 2.4867504
Step 3: LOSS/LOSS/WIN (Wins $15) = (.5364 * .5364 * .4636) * 15 = 2.0008393718399997
Step 4: LOSS/LOSS/LOSS/WIN (Wins $20) = ((.5364)^3 * .4636) * 20 = 1.431000318739968
Step 5-8 (Step 8 WIN): (All will win $20)
((.5364)^4 * .4636) * 20 = 0.7675885709721187
((.5364)^5 * .4636) * 20 = 0.41173450946944445
((.5364)^6 * .4636) * 20 = 0.22085439087941003
((.5364)^7 * .4636) * 20 = 0.11846629526771554
STEP 8 LOSS:
(.5364)^8 * (-2380) = -16.311244980609817
444 Craps System Reviews
OVERALL ER: 2.318 + 2.4867504 + 2.0008393718399997 + 1.431000318739968 + 0.7675885709721187 + 0.41173450946944445 + 0.22085439087941003 + 0.11846629526771554 -16.311244980609817 = -6.556011123441159Do I want to determine the average total bet?
Not really, but I guess I will.
(.4636 * 5) = 2.318
444 Craps System Free
(.5364 * .4636) * 20 = 4.9735008(.5364 * .5364 * .4636) * 55 = 7.336411030079999
((.5364)^3 * .4636) * 130 = 9.301502071809793
((.5364)^4 * .4636) * 280 = 10.746239993609663
((.5364)^5 * .4636) * 580 = 11.94030077461389
((.5364)^6 * .4636) * 1180 = 13.030409061885192
(WIN OR LOSE) (.5364)^7 * 2380 = 30.408734117467965
2.318 + 4.9735008 + 7.336411030079999 + 9.301502071809793 + 10.746239993609663 + 11.94030077481389 + 13.030409061885192 + 30.408734117467965 = 90.05509784966651
***DISCLAIMER***
-The effects of not splitting or doubling are reasonably well-incorporated into the Expected Loss because the Win/Loss rate accounts for perfect Basic Strategy, but perfect Basic Strategy would alter the bet amounts at each level (as the possibility of a Split or Double would necessarily increase the average bet amount, per level) so I think my formula approximates not splitting/doubling well-enough for the analysis of what will be a losing system anyway.
-The second disclaimer is that I did not include the possibility of being dealt a winning Natural into the calculations. While this results in inexact numbers with respect to the Expected Loss value (though it does not change the average bet) there's no indication that The Professor's method relies upon the player being dealt a Natural in any way to work, and in most cases, the player will either win or lose eight in a row without a Natural being involved at all.
-If anyone wants to figure out the Expected Loss of each run of the system factoring in Naturals, (I don't) then determine the probability of a winning Natural and subtract same from the overall probability of winning. Multiply the amount to be won (per level) by the overall probability of winning by any means other than a winning Natural and add the result of the amount to be won with a winning Natural multiplied by the probability of a winning Natural.
Sorry, I'm not doing it. Too labor intensive for what is guaranteed to be a losing system (not to mention a horrible way to play) anyway.
QUESTION 3:
No, why should he? The Professor has clearly not visited the Blackjack page of www.wizardofodds.com, or he would not be playing a system in which the player refuses to Double/Split to begin with.